doing it to make mitt romney look bad? >> i was making no connection to romney. >> it's like munchausen syndrome by political proxy. >> end of show. >> see you tomorrow. spac>> good evening. i'm bret baier. welcome to special report. we're live tonight. the clock will start striking 6 here in ports mouth, new hampshire in just a moment. we have been touring several of the 12 battleground states as we count down. there it goes. to election day. 22 days from today. we've identified more than 30 key swing counties inside those states. they're all marked in yellow on this map. one of those is this one. rockingham county in new hampshire. the first ballots in the first in the nation new hampshire primary were cast in dicksville

notch just after midnight 280 days ago. hard to believe. now in the remaining three weeks of this campaign, new hampshire's four electoral votes could conceivably be the difference between victory and defeat. more on that shortly. first, the headlines. president obama and mitt romney are both off the campaign trail today getting ready for tuesday's second debate. it will be a town hall format. the president is promising to be more aggressive this time out. one of the likely topics to be discussed, the libya scandal. the obama team is still trying to do damage control from vice-president biden's debate comment last week that the president did not know american diplomats in libya had begged for more security prior to last month's attack, plus the initial and repeated statements tying the attack to that anti-islam video. in the meantime, health officials are broadening their warnings to doctors about the company linked to the deadly meningitis outbreak.

they say other medicines made by the massachusetts company could be tied to reports of new illnesses. we are three weeks and one day from the presidential election. right now our weekly look at how the electoral college map is shaping up. joining me now is karl rove, former bush senior advisor from austin, texas. in washington, democratic strategy gisist joe trippi. you can see the red on the key, romney, blue is obama. the yellow states are toss up states within the margin of error. this is the first time based on polls from within the last two weeks. we've been doing it over the last month, but since we are within this time frame, and there are so many polls, carl, this is within the last two weeks. what has changed? >> well, who says debates don't matter? there were 60 polls in the last week and 27 states. if you look at the 30 day map,

there were three status changes, all of them benefitting romney. montana went from lean romney to strong romney. new hampshire and nevada moved from lean obama to toss up, but if you get rid of the polls that were conducted in the alert part of september and only look at the last two weeks, it accelerates the change. there are four more status changes, all of them benefitting romney for a total of seven status changes. the critical battleground state of ohio along with wisconsin go from lean obama to toss up, and connecticut goes from obama to lean obama and significantly, north carolina goes from toss up to lean romney, so at the end of this we're left with romney with 159 solid electoral votes to 194 for obama. each one with between 47 lean votes and romney's case, 43 for obama. 237 to 206 with 95 up for grabs. who says the debate can't make a big difference in seven states moving in the direction of romney. >> okay. joe. a lot of change, according to

carl. you buy that, number one, and what's the most significant. >> first of all, i do buy it. there's been significant movement to romney, particularly if you look at polls over the last two weeks, and look. i think the significance is a month ago i would have been and was one of the people saying the three-two-one strategy was in deep jeopardy of indiana, north carolina, and virginia going for romney. north carolina moving to lean romney is going in the right direction. now, ohio being a tossup which i agree with after i put it in the lean obama area. it's now a legitimate toss up. you put all that together and the 3-2-1 strategy that the romney campaign was aiming at to win the electoral college is now back in place and back in play. >> bret: carl, what about ohio? >> look, it's a tossup state, both private and public apology showing the state moving from lean obama to a sheer tossup

state, and not only that, we're seeing this in other battleground states that does not change status. virginia went from down tw two-point lead to tied. colorado went from a two-point lead for obama to a one-point lead for romney. the critical state of florida went from a two-point advantage for obama to a one-point advantage for romney. we had changes in indiana, michigan, and pennsylvania. michigan ans pennsylvania moved three points to romney in the last two weeks. this first debate was a real game-changer. 20 states improved for romney, seven had a status change, and nine of them had a margin change of bigger than three points, so significant movement, and much of it in the direction of mitt romney. >> brett, the one thing i would cause, though, is look how fast things change. it can go right back and forth over the next three weeks, and i think we should, you know, be sensitive to that. it's clearly very volatile

situation. >> bret: we talked about this before, guys. i'm standing in new hampshire which is four electoral votes. a lot of time spent in this state, and it is very, very close. a lot of time spent in iowa, six electoral votes. carlkarl, when you look at the , these are small places but they fit into this big puzzle. >> look. the candidates are constantly looking for ways to change the dynamic of the race in any state with any number of electoral votes. in 2000 bush made a play for west virginia, tennessee and arkansas, all thought to be in the democratic camp and all three ended up in the republican camp, and west virginia had five electoral votes. six in arkansas, so everybody in an election that's this tight and this close nationally, you're going to be finding a lot of attention being paid to some of these small states. >> all right. let's go to our ipad app. >> bret: you can submit your own map to put up against joe trippi or karl rove's map.

we've been fielding thousands of them. we have this week an interesting one. frank cas kasler has a map. if you take the eight states we have as tossup and frank gives three of them, wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire to obama, just those three, he guest guests 26. you give the other five states remaining on the map to romney, and guess what, he's at 269. in a crazy race, a crazy end to it, but there's still two more maine and nebraska that would come into play, bret, if this map holds. >> maine and nebraska break out their vote by district. last time around obama carried nebraska. this time around there's a new poll showing romney in striking distance. nebraska was redistricted and thought to be comfortably

republican and in the romney camp, but maine if it were to actually, you know, this scenario came to pass would result in an election in which romney would get to the magic 270 and obama would be at 268 all because one congressional district in the northern part of maine. now, again, this shows the centrality of ohio. if ohio which has moved from lean obama to toss up ends up in the romney category, then romney wins a comfortabl comfortable el college victory. it's a sign that look, this can change rapidly. debate last week had a big impact, but we know this about debates. the debate -- the first debate tends to set the tone for the balance of the debates. whoever wins that first debate tends to be the winner at the end. the question is how big is their margin at the end of the debate series d. >> bret: quickly, joe, if we had 269-269, you can imagine a lot of lawsuits and potentially throwing it to the house of representatives if we ever get there. >> if it goes to the house, first of all, there would be a lot of lawsuits, but second of all, if it gets to the house,

then you're going to see i think a republican house, and that would be tie goes to romney, i think. >> wow. that would be quite a finish. >> bret: all right, joe, karl, thank you very much. as always. we'll see you next time. all right. we look down congress street here in downtown portsmouth. the two presidential candidates are cramming for tuesday's second debate. it will be about 260 miles southwest of here on long island. chief political correspondent carl cameron is in new york city tonight. >> it's the calm before the storm and the pressure is on the president for a winning performance in tomorrow night's debate against mitt romney who by all accounts won round one two weeks ago. the president's been hunkered down in williamsburg, virginia rehearsing with aides for what some describe will be an aggressive program debate.

romney's cancelled a thursday joint appearance on the view with wife ann who will appear solo while romney campaigns in virginia. ryan served up barbecue in ohio and headlined a town hall style meeting in his home state of wisconsin this morning where he slapped the obama administration for the 16 trillion dollar national debt which will be the subject of a romney policy speech later this week. >> the crescent came into office saying he -- the president came into office saying he would cut the deficit in half in his first term. he's given us four years of tripltrillion dollar deficits. he's added more debt than all previous presidents combined. >> he was charged with misleading the public, arguing that romney's plan to decrease military spending and cut taxes across the board is mathematically impossible without adding to the debt. with the polls tied nationally, romney's popularity is surging.

the george washington university poll puts romney in positive territory for the first time. 54% favorable,44rs unverifiable. tomorrow's debate will show each candidates' ability to connect with voters. both sides agreed in advance that the audience would drive the discussion. moderatomoderator candy crowleyn said she will ask follo follow p questions and insert herself in the debate. insiders say time will tell. joe biden was scheduled to stomach in nevada today but -- to stump in nevada today but will take part in funeral services for arlen specter who died over the weekend. romney is shown up five points with significant gains among women. the romney campaign and the republican party today reported having raised $170 million in the month of september. that compares to $181 million for the obama cap pain an campae

democrats. watch the ad blitz accelerate in the next three weeks. >> we'll see you tomorrow, carl. >> bret: wall street starts the week on a positive note. the do you gained 95 today, the s&p 500 was up 11 and a half. the nasdaq finished ahead 20. you will not believe how expensive it can be to cancel your phone contract early. that's later in the grapevine. president obama hitting the books this time before his next big test. as we head to a break, a preview of our piece later talking to voters here about the election. >> i am voting for barack obama, and i'm voting for him because i feel that over all, he best represents my feelings in terms of the economy and education. >> i think it's going to be very, very close, but i think new hampshire will go for romney. >> a week ago we saw a presidential debate where president obama didn't even look like he wanted the job. he didn't even want to be there. last week we saw the

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>> bret: welcome back to portsmouth, new hampshire. probe is said to be taking -- president obama is said to be taking the second debate much more serious than the first. here's how the growing scandal in libya could affect the evening. >> president obama mingled with campaign volunteers here in have virginia but he's mostly been out of sight in debate prep. the pressure to do a better job tomorrow only increasing because of foreign policy on the table. just as republicans crank up their attacks over libya. >> they're very political when

it comes to foreign policy. >> when something goes bad, they deny, they deceive, they delay. the truth is we're not safer. >> reporter: the president will need to be better prepared than vice-president biden who only fueled more controversy in his debate by appearing to contradict sworn testimony by state department officials. >> we weren't told they wanted more security. >> reporter: the white house clarified biden meant he and the president did not know about the with request for more security in libya, but top advisors were playing defense. >> no doubt that these matters went into the security department at the state -- the security agency at the state department. it didn't come to the white house. that's what the vice-president was responding to. >> reporter: leaving the romney camp to charge the white house as passing the buck to secretary of state hillary clinton. >> we generally means your administration when you're talking as the president or the vice-president of the united states, including your state department. what we've been seeing is an effort by president obama and vice-president biden to say no, it was really secretary clinton.

>> reporter: republicans also tried to open a new front by charging the obama administration has failed to tap a 2.2 billion dollar security fund. >> we believe they didn't want the appearance of needing the security, and we want to put real security ahead of the appearance of not needing security. > >> reporter: the state department said they're reviewing that charge, and obama campaign officials insist republicans are politicizing the terror attack. >> you know what?'t need wing td cowboys. we don't need shoot from the hip diplomacy. >> reporter: fox news has learned senator graham has fired a letter off to the president about two prior targets of the embassy. he writes mr. president, were you informed of these attacks, if not, why not. if you were informed, what action was taken to protect the consulate. these are some pointed questions for the white house tonight on the eve of this big debate, bret. >> bret: you know, the white house is facing pressure tonight on syria.

>> reporter: they are. in that debate last week, the vice-president basically said that al-qaeda was not gaining strength inside syria, and that indirect help the u.s. was providing through the saudis and others was helping the rebels and not helping al-qaeda. you'll remember republican priep pushed back and insisted these arms were getting into the hands of jihaddists. today the "new york times" reports they are getting some of those arms and building the strength of al-qaeda. it's a contradiction the president could be confronted with tomorrow night and maybe next monday night when you remember the third and final presidential debate, all about foreign policy. >> bret: it will be interesting. ed, thank you. still ahead, brit hume on the libya scandal. first, what voters here in new hampshire are saying about the presidential election. > uh, i'm in a timeout because apparently

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>> bret: beautiful downtown portsmouth, new hampshire. as we already told you, we're in rockingham county. to get a sense of what voters in this crucial area are saying, the real clear politics average says they're virtually split down the middle in the state of new hampshire. president obama is at 48%, mitt romney is at 47.3. one of the benefits of hitting the road every so often is to look people in the eye and listen to what they're concerned about and learn what will make them pull the lever for one candidate over the other. >> nicole oka and dawn are relatively new moms with a lot to talk about on their afternoon walks. nicole is a registered nurse and has concerns. >> i work at a nursing home. we see a lot of residents with medicare and medicaid, state

funded policies and reimbursement issues. in private insurance the rates are obviously very high. >> yeah. >> competitive, but i'm not -- am i supposed to say what i'm supportive of? >> yes. >> i'm not in support of obama care. i don't wish for that to be happening. and what else? we have a new son, obviously, so education is important. >> this is austin. >> yes. >> hi, austin. >> are you paying close attention to it? did you watch the debate? >> yes, i did watch the debate. i fell asleep at 9:30, but i watched some of it. >> yeah. >> did it sway you? >> i was already decided. >> nicole supports romney. her friend and walking partner dawn said she tries to stay out of political issues, but she thinks she's made up her mind to support president obama. >> yes, somewhat. >> could you be swayed in the

next 22 days? >> possibly. but more by family members. >> really? >> they would sway me. >> maybe along one of these walks? are you working her over? is that what's happening. >> now we will be. we weren't talking about that before. >> reporter: george carlyle is a retired printing and publishing ceo who now owns a building and real estate business in downtown portsmouth. for him, the choice is clear. >> it all starts with people having jobs and not just any job but good jobs. i think this election cycle offers people the biggest difference they've ever faced. on one candidate you've got way over here, the other is way over here. i'm shocked that there's anybody who is undecided. >> you've made up your mind. >> oh, yeah. oh, yeah. i made it up a long time ago. i'm for mitt romney, and i worked in massachusetts back when he was with bain capital, and i have watched his career. i think, first of all, i'm shocked that he wants the job.

i think the world is fortunate to have somebody of his character and his capabilities that actually wants to be president of the united states. i've lived here all my life. new hampshire is live free or die. we are fiercely independent. we can't be bought. people make up their own minds, and the reasons are sometimes quite dispar rat. not always what you think. i think it will be close but i think new hampshire will go for romney. >> bret: erika peace is a student. >> are you paying attention? >> i've been watching the news, looking at my iphone. >> are you leaning one way? >> towards obama. >> are you? >> and what most attracts you to president obama? >> it's a lot of things. pretty much like i agree with a lot of things he talks about in terms of health and education. i really like his direction towards, you know, the next four years. i think the administration in general is geared toward obama. >> 23-year-old brendan divine

disagrees. he just graduated from cornell and he said the job market is his priority. >> the prospects for recent graduates are not encouraging. i went to a rather prestigious school and those people don't even have that as a point when they get in the job market, so lots of young people, my demographic, are hurting, but a lot of people are still on the obama bandwagon, and i'm trying to figure out why. >> brian is unemployed, and undecided. >> i'm not really thrilled with either candidate. they don't strike me as followers-through on commitments based on track record, so probably it will be a gut feeling when i go into the booth. >> bret: people are not afraid to express their feelings in new hampshire when it comes to politics. sandra works for the government. >> i'm voting for obama because i think at this point it's the lesser of two evils, and i trust

him more than the other dude. >> bob tilton just feels better with romney. >> i'm leaning very strongly towards mitt romney. actually, i'm probably going to vote for him. i just feel that he's going to do more to fix the economy. i think it's a mixed bag. i think there's a lot of people who aren't sure. >> ian works at a gift shop on congress street. he is sick yo of all the negatie activity. >> the ads that are stacking up, piles and piles of trash. i mean, although i guess that's probably not what you want me to talk about. >> it's reality here. >> yeah. it's entirely out of control. it's incredibly hostile. >> are you leaning one way or another? >> right now towards barack obama just because i think the health care issue is a good idea. i don't know if he's doing it as efficiently as it should be done, but yeah, i think health care is, you know, something that most first world countries

should probably have. >> alexada owns a kitchen design business. >> we would like to expand and we don't know where things are heading. we're worried about the market. if people aren't going to be working, we're not going to be selling products. it's very, very tough. >> i mean, you're holding back. >> oh, yeah. we're holding back, yeah. pretty much so for the last three years. we've been trying to make a decision and we really can't. >> does this election matter to you? are you paying attention? >> extremely so. yes, extremely so. >> can i ask you which way you're heading? >> yes. conservative. i like romney very, very much. i think he's the only real hope we have right now. >> that gives you a flavor of talking to voters here. coming up, you think your phone bill is high? you will not believe what one woman was charged for canceling and a bad year gets worse for one democratic congressman. keep it here. [ male announcer ] how do you make america's favorite recipes?

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>> bret: now fresh pickings from the political gravy vine. jesse jackson, jr. is expected of going a littleover board. investigators believe jackson may have used campaign funds to spruce up his washington, d.c. home that was briefly put on the market for two and a half million dollars to pay for costs linked to jackson's treatment for depression. jackson is the subject of

another probe into allegations he tried to cut a deal to get president obama's old senate seat. new york police reportedly have arrested nearly two dozen people in an undercover sting that revealed drug dealers openly advertising on craigslist. abc news reports officers made 63 drug purchases responding to brazen ads for bundles of dope as well as adderall, xanax, and oxycontin. one ad offered friendly nyu student can offer pain relief and anxiety leaf relief, sketchy straight forward meeting. it's a ambulate tant approach. so far craigslist has not commented. a french woman broke up with her telephone company, but the cancellation fee is truly on one for the ages. the bill was around 15 quadrillion dollars, six times the economic output of

france. it was, of course, praint being error. the actual bill was about $150 bucks. back now to presidential politics and the subject sure to come up in tuesday's debate. the attack on the u.s. mission in libya. senior political analyst brit hume has some thoughts on what we were told, when, and what we know now. good evening, brit. >> hi, bret. we know on the night of september 11th ambassador chris stephens walked a visitor out into a quiet night after a quiet day. only minutes later, the compound was overrun by heavily armed men who waged an hour's long fire fight that left stephens and three other americans dead and the facility in ruins. we now know that within 24 hours the state department had determined the attack was terrorism, and we know the department never concluded the incident had anything to do with that video critical of the prophet mo muhammed.

two days later the press secretary said the violence was, quote, in response to that video adding, quote, we have no information to suggest it was a preplanned attack. two days later un ambassador susan rice was sent by the white house on to five sunday talk shows to make the same claim saying it was the best information the administration had. it now seems nearly inescapable not only that all of this was false, but that the white house knew it was false, so should the obama campaign really be the one throwing around accusations of lying this fall?bret? >> bret: that could come up tomorrow night. brit, sad news over the weekend with the former senator from pennsylvania, arlen specter, losing his battle with non-hodgkin's lymphoma. what do you think pennsylvania's longest serving senator will be remembered for? >> well, two things. he waged a long fight against cancer and he held it off a long

time. politically speaking as well as medically he was one of the most enduring figures of our time. one more thing. he was a one-time prosecutor and a formidable ininterrogator. it would be nice to have him around to ask questions of white house aides about benghazi, libya, and what was done inside the white house that led to that story being out for so long that was so wrong. >> bret: all right, brit. thanks. we'll talk to you tomorrow. be sure to visit our web page to watch a longer piece about senator specter's life and his influence in politics. go to foxnews.com/special report. we'll talk about tomorrow night's debate and one of the big topics we just talked about, libya. the fox all stars join me from washington after a break.

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they're trying to fill a narrative, quite frankly, that the middle east wars are

receding and al-qaeda is dismantled. to admit that our embassy was attacked by al-qaeda objectives and leading from behind didn't work undercuts the narrative. they didn't believe the media would investigation and congress was out of session. it finally caught up with them. >> it's not a matter of blaming. that's just the fact. sometimes intelligence has to catch up with reality on the ground. this is one of those cases. >> bret: after a busy day on the sunday talk shows, the libya scandal continues to erupt for the white house, and it will likely be a topic at the debate tomorrow night ahead of the foreign policy debate next week. let's bring in our panel back in washington. steve hayes, senior writer for the weekly standard, a national correspondent from national public radio and charles krauthammer. how is this playing after the weekend. where is the story headed? >> well, there's still so many unanswered questions. i think it's going to continue to dog the obama administration.

i mean, you have david axelrod yesterday asked directly by chris wallace whether president obama participated in a security briefing before he flew to las vegas for a fundraiser, how that same day david axelrod either couldn't answer or opted not to answer. but there are all sorts of additional questions about when the administration learned that its initial narrative was incorrect. you had democrats in congress, both in the house and the senate come out in the days immediately following the september 11th, 2012 attacks saying of course this was preplanned. we knew it was premeditated. we've had others saying immediately again that this was al-qaeda, that it was some al-qaeda-linked groups, so the big question that remains unanswered, why did the obama administration fail to tell us that early? >> ma maura? >> this is a real opening, an opportunity for mitt romney. up until now, foreign policy has either been an advantage for the

president or the kind of debate where romney at some point or other would have to say what he would do differently. this is very different. this is a very straight forward. why the administration appears to have said something that subsequently and pretty quickly turned out not to be the case which is that these -- that the violence in benghazi was a result of this movie as opposed to an attack by an al-qaeda affiliate. >> bret: charles, there are two elements that the vice-president said at the debate with paul ryan that are now the focus of a lot of fact checking, and one is whether the white house knew about the request about libya for additional security, and two is about now the syrian arms and whether the syrian rebels were getting arms from the u.s., the jihaddists. now that's coming into question as well. >> i think what biden, when he said we didn't know, clearly when the vice-president speaks,

everybody assumes he's speaking on behalf of the administration. nobody's interested if one person or another in the white house knew. it's obviously they're now trying to cover that. clearly the state department knew because they were the ones who received the request and turned them down, so they're spinning that as a way to cover for the vice-president. but if i can add one point to what lindsey graham said, he explained, i think, absolutely correctly why they tried to cover up, because it contradicted their story. bin laden dead, spiking of the football in charlotte. there was another factor here. how could they have thought they would get away with it? they already knew by sunday, in other words, when susan rice went on the air, they knew right away it was a terror attack, and they had real-time following of the events in benghazi, real-time access to what was happening on the night it happened at the state department in washington, so they knew

there was no riot. there wasn't a mob. there wasn't a demonstration. why did they think they could actually get away with that? i think part of the answer is they thought that the media would not dash would not work on it, and look at the way they handled it. they went after romney ease statement for three days. ambassador killed for the first time in 30 years, and that was the whole media analysis for three days, and they thought the media's not going to look into it. we can ride this out until election day and after election day it doesn't matter. >> bret: steve, does this come up in the debate? it's a different format. it's a town hall, uncommitted voters chosen by gallup, and there's some controversy with the campaigns concerned about how candy crowley will moderate it. does it come up? >> well, i would certainly think it would come up. i mean, it has been. charles is exactly right about the time line and the media not covering this as robustly from the beginning as it should have. now with all of these unanswered questions and the many, many

contradictions from the administration, it's finally gotten attention in the media. as a result, it would surely be at least one of the questions tomorrow and one would think if it's asked, that would be one of the questions that candy crowley would use to do some direct followups. i mean, president obama has not had to answer questions about this, hasn't been asked in a direct way. i think he needs to. i think it probably will come tomorrow. >> next up, experts here in portsmouth on what new hampshire means to the presidential election. keep it here. 4g lte has the fastest speeds.

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>> bret: welcome back to beautiful downtown portsmouth, new hampshire. we're at popover's bakery and cafe talking with a group of local political experts about the race here in new hampshire. we're pleasured to be joined by kevin landrigen, and james pindel from wmur, and andy smith. thanks for being here. rockingham county is a swing county. we're here because it's a very interesting place. new hampshire has a state that went for president obama last time. he won all 10 counties in new hampshire. rockingham had the smallest smat margin, just about 1500 votes. here in portsmouth it's a democratic stronghold, but rockingham is kind of more of a republican place. andy, how does this place stack up in the state? >> well, it's the second largest county in the state in terms of population, and it's really interesting because there's this

part of it here over the sea coast. it's democratic, but the bulk of it, the part of the county that's bedroom communities for boston, largely republican. there's a part in southwestern rockingham county, the democrats refer to as the bermuda triangle where democratic candidates go to die, so it's a critical county for republicans to win, and i think they're going to have to get -- romney has to get 55% or more of the vote in rockingham county to do well in the state. >> bret: james? >> you see that intensity with the romney campaign. they know they have to build big gains in the county which is basically one out of four new hampshire residents here. you can see it in the campaign trail. in the last two weeks, paul ryan has been in rockingham county. scott walker has been in rocking rockingham county. >> to that point, kevin, the focus on new hampshire, you guys are always used to being a focus, but boy, now it really is a focus again. >> republicans haven't won in 2004, 2008, so there's a little winning streak going for

democrats. even here in rockingham county, we had the president come to portsmouth last month. they're contesting heavily here. rockingham county sort of shows you how new hampshire has changed over the last ten years. ten years ago the reception of the legislature in rockingham county was 9-1 republican. it's now more like 65-35% republican. it is the most republican county, but it's nonetheless heavily contested by the democrats, and the obama campaign certainly for the last five or six months has had a better ground game than the romney campaign. >> bret: the unemployment rate is 5.7% in rockingham county, a bit bigger, 6.1%, still well below the national average. >> right. >> bret: the economy still drives the day. how does mitt romney play in the state? obviously he has a place here at liclake winnipesaukee. how does he play in the state, andy? >> i think he does well here, probably better than in other states largely because he's seen

as a moderate republican candidate from his time in massachusetts. >massachusetts. >> bret: people know him here. >> they know him, but republican voters are largely moderate republicans. he fits in with the political character of the state of new hampshire. the bigger problem he faces is not so much whether people know him or not. it's that the state has become increasingly democratic as kevin referenced over the last ten years or so. democrats have about a 5% edge in the state. he has to motivate the republicans who kind of like him to make up for the democrats' difference in numbers. >> this is becoming a classic new hampshire election. this has been a swing state. we have the live free or die motto. we're the most libertarian state this side of the mississippi. the question for new hampshire elections is about fiscal issues, taxes and spending, republicans win. if it's about anything else, social issues, war, something else democrats tend to do better. >> bret: that said, how does the president's health care law play here? how does the tax question play

here on the president's side? >> the health care law is not wildly popular here. one of the reasons why is we have some of the highest health care costs in the country, so that's not a wholly positive thing for the president, and as you know, we're here in new hampshire, taxes matter. we don't have an income or a sales tax, so the tax against president obama as a taxer do hurt him, but on taxes in new hampshire, you've got to tell the truth and be a hundred percent accurate. that's the concern for romney right now with a few weeks left. with that study last week that suggested that his tax plan may not all add up, he that is to make sure his math adds up in order to be credible on taxes. >> bret: clearly that debate moves the needle, at least if you look at those polls post-debate, but andy, you were starting to see some stuff even before that debate that things . what do you think of the last 20 plus days and what you might see depending on the next couple of debates? >> first off, i think we're

getting to the point where the final third of the electorate that's going to show up is starting to pay attention. we have to really remind ourselves that most people don't care that much about politics like we have to, so those people who are starting to pay attention now are the ones that are going to be key, and i think over the -- you'll see the polls in new hampshire as well as nationwide start to stableize as they decide, first off, whether they're going to vote or not and then the independents, the people who aren't really that political will decide who they vote for. i think it's going to be stable and i think we'll see margin nal increase but nothing like the dramatic increase or decrease that we saw after the last debate. we were seeing movement before the debate started, before the debate actually occurred towards romney. republicans are getting their enthusiasm after losing it in september. >> generally new hampshire is not about base elections, bringing out republican or democratic base. both presidential campaigns are playing that way. 39% of the state are independent or undeclared voters.

33% are republican. 28% are democrat. by the math these undeclared or independent voters will decide the election. whether or not they figure out this is about fiscal issues and the complee or if it's about -- economy or if it's about health care or values, remember, this is a state with no income tax, no sales tax. >> kevin, james, andy, thank you very much. we'll dig into these popovers in beautiful downtown portsmouth. thank you as always. we'll be back after this short break. keep it here on special report. . [ voice of dennis ] allstate. with accident forgiveness, they guarantee your rates won't go up just because of an accident. smart kid. [ voice of dennis ] indeed. are you in good hands? and these come together, one thing you can depend on is that these will come together. delicious and wholesome. some combinations were just meant to be.

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♪ >> bret: finally tonight, an invitation to join us for "special report" tuesday night live from hofstra university on long island site of the second presidential debate. our live coverage of that town hall begins at 8 p.m. eastern. we will have our town hall of